BRATISLAVA, May 10, (WEBNOVINY) — The trend of the Slovak economy’s quarterly growth slowing down probably continued in the first three months of 2011. According to a survey conducted by the National Bank of Slovakia (NBS), bank analysts expect 2011 Q1 y/y growth to be 3.3 percent. Last year, quarterly economic growth slowed from 4.7 percent in Q1 to 3.5 percent in Q4. Slovak Statistics Office is to publish its flash estimate of Q1 GDP development this Friday.
“We expect no essential changes in growth structure. In the scope of supply, industry should be responsible for growth. From the demand point of view, exports should remain the driving force behind it, together with investment activities of local businesses, which are recovering little by little,” UniCredit Bank analyst Lubomir Korsnak told SITA. However, according to him, weak consumption by the government and households will work against growth of the economy. “As the already published retail revenues show, the consumption of households has not, as expected, been revived and stays close to the minimum,” he added.
Slovenska Sporitelna analysts are more optimistic than the market consensus, predicting 3.6 percent quarterly growth y/y. “We estimate that the economy has grown by 0.8 percent since the last quarter, which is a pace comparable to that of the last seven quarters,” says Slovenska Sporitelna analyst Maria Valachyova.
Analysts forecast Slovakia’s average growth at 3.6 percent this year. The Slovak economy should be pulled along mostly by export and investments. “Slight improvement in the consumption of households is expected toward the end of the year. Government consumption should contribute to GDP growth negatively throughout the whole year,” said Korsnak.
SITA